‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's homes.

As military actions on Iran impede energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, media reports say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.